The Two Mistake Great Nations Always Make

The phrase "Rise and Fall of" usually precedes something great that was established but then due to certain factors just utterly falls apart. This term has always been reserved for swift magnificent collapses. Some current nouns befitting this descriptive title are Bear Stearns, Eliot Spitzer and even Britney Spears. These three examples are testament to George Santayana's famous advice that "Those who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them". So in order to learn this lesson the "easy" way, I decided to research one of the greatest and most widely studied collapses of all time, the Fall of the Roman Empire. In our society, there has always been an interest and emphasis on studying how to "rise to the top" as evident by the multitude of self-help/personal development books, websites and seminars. Since most people already know how to "rise" and be successful, I want to focus on how certain extremely successful and great things "fall from glory".

The reason for the fall of the Roman Empire is one of much debate and controversy. One theory by Edward Gibbon blames the decline of the Empire on loss of "civic virtue" among Rome's citizens resulting in outsourcing of important duties such as Empire defense to barbarian mercenaries who eventually revolted and took over the Empire. Roman citizens became complacent and lazy with their successes and lost the military toughness that had brought them success. Another reason cited for the Empire's demise was overextension. As the Empire grew, there were more bordering enemies and more cities to defend thus spreading the military thin. This not only led to weakened defense throughout all the cities during a time when military protection needed to be strongest but also led to the aforementioned hiring of barbarian mercenaries who later became responsible for destroying the Empire. Rome's fall is eloquently described by Gibbon here: "The union of the Roman empire was dissolved; its genius was humbled in the dust; and armies of unknown barbarians, issuing from the frozen regions of the North, had established their victorious reign over the fairest provinces of Europe and Africa." (Chapter 33 from Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire).

Although barbarian incursions are popularly believed to be the cause of Rome's fall, an interesting argument has been raised in The Upside of Down by Thomas Homer-Dixon for complexity as a primary cause. He believed that Roman Society became more complex and difficult to control which resulted in bureaucracies and corruption. Homer-Dixon states that "rising complexity strangled the empire's ability to renew itself". Basically, the complexity led to a rigidity that reduced Rome's ability to withstand sudden unexpected crises. The author also argues that increasing complexity results in decreasing investment returns of energy despite expending more energy. Rome's main source of energy was food and as Rome expanded and became more complex, the empire exhausted its best farmland and had to cultivate less fertile lands. Poorer crop yields along with longer food supply lines to major cities caused the return on energy investment to steadily decrease with increasing effort/energy. As time went on and complexity further increased, Rome's energy supply was eventually producing too little for the amount of energy needed to maintain these supply lines and its famous dramatic collapse ensued.

Although commonly associated with intelligence, sophistication and progress, complexity is detrimental. Complex ideas and institutions require more energy to sustain with diminishing marginal returns than its simple predecessors. The current financial credit crisis in the US was born out of complex financial instruments (nontraditional mortgages and equity and bond derivatives) that very few people, including CEOs of major financial institutions, understood. These complex systems caused the financial industry to become too rigid and when a crisis (subprime) occurred, many firms were rudely awakened to staggering losses and substantial risks on various holdings (Bear Stearns, Ambac Financial, Countrywide Financial and numerous other companies). Since society and financial markets are becoming more intertwined and complex, a disaster in the financial sector translates into trouble for the general economy and global markets. The more complex a system is the less the system can cope with sudden shocks.

Another example that attests to the deleterious effects of complexity can be seen in investing/trading. Two REQUIRED characteristics of a successful investor/trader are flexibility and adaptability. The financial markets are ever changing and to be profitable one has to act fast and be flexible in one's thinking and adapt to changing conditions. Since rigidity is directly proportional to complexity and flexibility is the opposite of rigidity, it is logical to conclude that complexity is inversely proportional to investing/trading success. Traders and investors that devote much of their time performing complex strategies and using every indicator across all markets usually suffer in performance to those who have simple yet effective strategies. It is easy to get lost in all the clutter and miss out on key information.

Here are some valuable lessons to be learned from the Fall of the Roman Empire:

• Don't Become Complacent - After achieving success, it is natural to want to take a break from all your hard work and get lazy but if you want to maintain success, you need to stay "hungry" for what you want. Pursue work that you enjoy so you never need to really "take a break". Trying to constantly improve your chances of success is something you should find fun.
  

• Don't Overextend Yourself - Napoleon, the Roman Empire, and subprime borrowers are all too familiar with the grave dangers of overextending. Spreading yourself thin is always an invitation for disaster. When you take on too much, there is no room for error or unforeseen circumstances. Know your limitations and make sure you stay within them so as to not become an unfortunate statistic to Murphy's Law.
  

• Keep It Simple, Stupid! (KISS) - The most important lesson that I learned from my research is to keep things simple. I have seen many traders use a million and one indicators and look at hundreds of charts and perform all types of complex analysis but yet can't make any money. When you pay too much attention to detail, it not only consumes time and energy, sometimes you lose sight of the big picture and important data. The most effective presentations are those that get to the point. When things are complicated, it is easy for mistakes to occur but difficult to locate the source of those mistakes. Almost always, less IS really more.
  

History does hold many timeless teachings and taking heed to these lessons will save you from learning things the "hard" way.

Stay tuned for future articles concerning complexity. It is a topic that is both intriguing and relevant.

Recommended Reading: The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire by Edward Gibbon and The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization by Thomas Homer-Dixon