Thomas Jefferson's Guide on How to Behave!

Much like Poor Richard's Thirteen Virtues, our third president and author of the Declaration of Independence also had his own rules of conduct. Despite it being over 200 years old, many if not all of these ideas are still relevant today. I believe that taking advice from one of the founding fathers of this nation is never a bad thing.

Here are Thomas Jefferson's Rules of Conduct:

1. Never put off 'til tomorrow what you can do today (Very useful if you really want to get things done)
2. Never trouble another for what you can do for yourself (Self-help is the common denominator of all successful people)
3. Never spend money before you have it (We've all learned the value of this rule ... or have we?)
4. Never buy anything you do not want because it is cheap (Good response to Groupon, Living Social and any other deal sites that tempt you to buy things you don't really want)
5. Take care of your change; dollars will take care of themselves ("Sweat the small stuff") 
6. Pride costs us more than hunger, thirst and cold (I think it is safe to assume we all know how expensive and costly pride can be)
7. We never repent for having eaten too little (I've never had a good feeling walking out of a buffet - also I hear those who eat less calories/day live longer)
8. Nothing is troublesome that one does of his own volition (Have a passion and you'll never be unfulfilled - what's mundane to one person may not be so to another)
9. How much pain has cost us the evils which have never happened (Stop worrying - you're just wasting energy that can be better used)
10. Take things always by their smooth handle (Always use tact and go for win-win outcomes)
11. Think as you please, and so let others, and you will have no disputes (Don't judge, everyone has their own truth and perceptions so respect that)
12. When annoyed, count 10 before you speak. If very annoyed, count 100 (Works every time, just try it)

The actual document from www.monticello.org

How to Define Success

Success is what you make it to be. When you don't have a dream, you end up taking on someone else's dream. If you ever needed a template for success, Mr. Emerson provides a good starting point (remember - you need to create your own)

"To laugh often and love much; to win the respect of intellingent persons and the affection of children; to earn the approbation of honest citizens and endure the betrayal of false friends; to appreciate beauty; to find the best in others; to give of one's self; to leave the world a bit better, whether by a healthy child, a garden patch or a redeemed social condition; to have played and laughed with enthusiasm and sung with exultation; to know even one life has breathed easier because you have lived - this is to have succeeded."

- Ralph Waldo Emerson

Get Smart! Get Advice from the Greats

Here are some quotes that I find to be somewhat appropriate in today's global environment:

Moving too fast?:

"What is the use of running if you're not on the right road" - Anonymous

If only people listened to Ben (and I don't mean Bernanke. Anyways, for more of Poor Richard's pearls of wisdom click here):

"An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure" - Benjamin Franklin

Come on now, it isn't all bad:

"We are healed of a suffering only by experiencing it in full" - Marcel Proust (this one is too true)

"Good judgment comes from experience and experience usually comes from bad judgment" - Anonymous (I'm more experienced than I thought.)


Here is a Bonus Quote (On first reading I thought it was pretty useless but after further observations this quote was only seemingly useless):

"There is nothing in which people more betray their character than in what they laugh at" - Johann Wolfgang van Goethe

So, if you really want to get to know someone, take them to a comedy show and see what jokes they laugh at. You will be surprised at how right Johann was.

Drowning in Information

"We are drowning in information, while starving for wisdom"

- from Consilience by Edward O. Wilson

The Big Secret: You CAN Achieve More by Doing Less

Recently I stumbled upon an interesting book by Tim Ferris called The Four Hour Workweek. With such an inviting title, how can I resist? In his book, he touches upon Pareto's Law or what is more popularly known as the "80/20 Principle". This principle was founded when Pareto noticed that 80% of a country's wealth was owned by 20% of the population. The interesting and most important aspect of this principle is its widespread presence over a variety of matters such as: 80% of all sales revenues come from 20% of the customers, most people spend 80% of their time with 20% of our friends, 80% of gains in a stock market portfolio comes from 20% of the stocks in that portfolio and etc. To encompass the infinite other examples (I am sure you can think of a many examples of your own), here is a basic definition of Pareto's Law or the 80/20 Rule: "In ANYTHING, a FEW (20 percent) are VITAL and MANY (80 percent) are TRIVIAL".

Here is a graphical representation of the Pareto Effect:
This Pareto Principle has been used heavily and effectively in business management (online resource based on Richard Koch's The 80/20 Principle) and quality control (Six Sigma) but many people rarely apply this rule to their own personal lives. In the work place, one can use Pareto's Principle to work "smarter" and more effective by focusing on the 20% of the work that is truly important. Another way to use this rule is to use it like Ferris did in his book by evaluating your life. He did so by asking two Pareto questions:

1. Which 20% of sources are causing 80% of my problems and unhappiness?
2. Which 20% of sources are resulting in 80% of my desired outcomes and happiness?

Take some time to answer these questions on your own, you might just surprise yourself and find out that you're a living example of the Pareto effect. Many people tend to associate being "busy" or doing more as being productive, but if many of things (80% to be specific) that you do are trivial, how productive are you? It is important that you BE SELECTIVE with your time and efforts. Find out what things in your life pull the most weight and focus on those things while deemphasizing things that do not have much effect in your life. If you can't differentiate between what is vital and what is trivial, start by making a list of your day to day activities and evaluate each activity and its "real" importance. The hardest part about this is being honest with yourself because contrary to your own belief, you will probably find that you do spend most of your time doing ineffective things. When I mean ineffective, I am not referring to hanging out with friends or doing things you enjoy but rather activities such as checking email every 15 minutes or spending 5 hours preparing for a minor meeting.

Here are some quotes that might inspire you to perform a self-Pareto evaluation:

"There is never enough time to do everything, but there is always enough time to do the most important thing" - Brian Tracy, Self-Help Author

"Short as life is, we make it still shorter by the careless waste of time" - Victor Hugo, Author of Les Miserables

Lastly, the 80/20 Rule is a great way to get rid of the clutter, not only mentally but physically, in your life. Most of us wear 20% of our wardrobe 80% of the time, so why not clear up some closet space by donating your unused clothes to the local church or Salvation Army. Your trivial clothes can become part of someone's vital wardrobe. Cleaning up the clutter in your life will definitely reduce stress in your life and invite clarity into your thoughts. Give it a try! (Check out CutterClarity's 21 tips to removing clutter)

Feel free to leave personal experiences and ideas on the Pareto Principle in the comments section below. Achieve more now by doing less today!

Recommended Reading: The 4-Hour Workweek: Escape 9-5, Live Anywhere, and Join the New Rich by Timothy Ferris and The 80/20 Principle: The Secret to Success by Achieving More with Less by Richard Koch

Can We Really Trust Ourselves? Monkey See Monkey Do

I'm not a proponent of evolution but maybe we have more in common with monkeys than we would care to admit. When imitation occurs as a result of conscious thought it can represent the sincerest form of flattery but more often than not people are actually "victims" of unconscious imitation.

Innately, humans have a strong tendency towards imitation. Just look at children - they were never told to imitate but they just do - it is the way they learn and it's natural. As we progress in brain development and age, we have had enough experiences to generate "unique" behaviors and outwardly cast off "child-like" imitation behaviors (this is especially prevalent in the Western hemisphere where individuality reigns supreme).

Like all natural urges, what may be suppressed in the conscious mind (ego) may not necessarily be restrained in the unconscious mind (id). This is the reason why we have so many fads, fashion and partners that are beyond the comprehension of reasonable thinking. One example of imitation gone wild is the popularity of faded designer jeans. These days, jeans that look like they would have normally been thrown out due to extensive wear (stained and faded with holes) are being sold as new and bought at ridiculous prices. Despite our common sense (jeans do not cost over $100 to make), we can not help but to imitate everyone else and buy these jeans or at least have the desire to buy them.

Another interesting example of unconscious imitation is the "groupie effect" (For more on human attraction, check out Like Dissolves Like). The basic premise for this effect is that men/women are attracted to women/men that other men/women find attractive. This is why musicians and celebrities "seem" attractive and have groupies despite their actual physical appearance. So for anyone that is single, a good way to increase your chances of success in meeting someone is to have an "opposite-sex" wing person. This effect can be explained by what scientists call "mate choice copying". Finding a suitable partner is time consuming so taking cues from other is an effective mating shortcut. This also explains why women view men who are married or have a girlfriend more attractive than men who are single.

The last example that exemplifies unconscious imitation, desiring what others consider desirable, can be found in free capital markets. In the year 1634 in Holland, the price of tulips (yes, the flower) traded higher than the price of gold. This occurred because people wanted tulips for the sole reason that everyone else wanted tulips. They disregarded their common sense, much like we do with "holey" jeans, and prices for tulips sky rocketed. As with all fads, the demand for tulips faded and a panic ensued causing the price to plummet and financial ruin for many. Now tulip mania or tulipomania is used to refer to any large economic bubble. In hindsight, one can almost laugh at the absurdness of the Dutch, but with many brought to financial ruin when the tech bubble burst and many suffering through the bursting of the current housing bubble, are we that much different?

Unconscious imitation can certainly be dangerous but it can also be helpful. One way to take advantage of your natural desire to imitate is to surround yourself with people you want to be like. If you want be a better basketball player, play with people better than you. If you want be more religious, surround yourself with religious people by consistently attending religious services and events. Unconscious imitation requires no "work" on your part but this can be a double edged sword. Since you can't help but be affected by those around you, it is important to evaluate the people and media (visual- television, audio- radio/mp3 and print- books) that you surround yourself with.

"When the character of a man is not clear to you, look at his friends." - Japanese Proverb

Recommended Readings: Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles Mackay

The One Skill Everyone Should Use

The more that you read,
the more things you will know.
The more that you learn,
the more places you'll go.

(by Dr. Seuss from I Can Read with My Eyes Shut!)

Living in the era of the Internet, it seems that reading has become somewhat obsolete and drab. There seem to be less and less people picking up a book to read and compare to the glitz of television and countless online media, a regular book seems to go the way of vinyl records and Commodore 64s. Although it would be hard to argue against this popular technologically driven trend, I would still like to propose reasons for the usefulness of reading for this current generation and for many generations to come.

Why We Should Continue to Read

1) Reading Uses the Brain - Our brain and its network of neural processors are still far above and beyond the best supercomputers out there (Computer vs. Brain article). Like most parts of our body, the brain strengthens with continual use and exercise. When you read, the brain will automatically access your imagination and conjure up images to the words you are reading. When you watch videos or other visually intense media, the brain is actually becoming less active because it no longer has to create images but rather just passively observe them. The more dependent one becomes on visual images as opposed to those the brain creates, the weaker the brain's imagination becomes. It is similar to someone attempting to gain driving experience just by sitting in the passenger seat of the car. For those who watch movies of popular books (Lord of the Rings Trilogy, The DaVinci Code, Chronicles of Narnia, 21, Jurassic Park or Harry Potter) instead of reading the actual books, you don't know what you are missing. I have personally never watched a movie that was better than the book.

2) Stand on the Shoulders of Giants - Most material from the great people of history are chronicled in books. Reading their stories will not only advise you on what to do but also on what not to do. Many pitfalls common to the human race have been written about countless times and those who have read such stories are able to avoid the "hard way" of learning life's lessons. Secondly, there are books about every subject out there. If you want to learn more, reading is a must. "Don't follow your mentors, follow your mentors' mentors" (David Leach)

3) Successful People are Avid Readers - On almost every list describing successful people, reading seems to be a prerequisite to success. "Leaders are Readers" is a popular slogan amongst motivational speakers and it is not hard to see why. Reading is perhaps one of the best (simple, effective and cheap) ways to broaden our horizons and to expose ourselves to new thought patterns. These new thought patterns are then fused with our current patterns thus expanding the capabilities of our mind. It is no coincidence that noteworthy CEOs (Steve Jobs - Apple, Phil Knight - Nike and Dee Hock - Founder of VISA) have libraries proportionate to their success.

If you want to make a positive change in your life and break out of your current state of affairs, I recommend picking up a book to read to stir up your thinking. Most people that want to change their lives usually pick up "self-help" books but again you fall into the trap of becoming passive and simply following instructions. Read books of all genres and pick something you enjoy. Sometimes if you want to change your circumstances, you don't need a change of environment but rather a change of thought. Although you can certainly find things to read on the Internet, books, especially time tested classics, are held to a high standard as oppose to some information on the Internet, which is largely unregulated. Don't get me wrong, the Internet has made access to quality information a lot easier than before but the "uploaders" of content are not screened and misinformation is easily guised as expert commentary.

Perhaps my elementary school librarian was right all along: Reading IS Fundamental (RIF)

To make things easier, most libraries have upgraded to systems where books can be requested online to be sent to a library location convenient for the patron. If you are not sure what to read, check out the Seemingly Useless Recommended Readings or the NY Times Bestsellers.

Recommended Readings: Seven Pillars of Wisdom by T.E. Lawrence and Rubáiyát by Omar Khayyam

Survival of the "Fittest" - Flexibilty and Specialization

"It is not the strongest that survives, not the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change" - Charles Darwin from The Origin of Species

Whether you believe in evolution or not, it is undeniable that Darwin's observations were insightful. Contrary to popular belief, it is not the strongest or smartest that survives but rather those that are the most adaptable. Survival of the "Fittest" does not mean physical or mental fitness but rather being the best fit for your environment. Since our surroundings are ever changing, one needs to constantly adapt to new environments. In order to adapt, one needs to understand change (Here is article concerning CHANGE). The faster one can acclimate to their new environment, the higher the chances of survival. In addition to surviving, those who can adapt are usually also successful because they are resourceful and flexible in dealing with all situations.

One good example of an ever changing environment is the stock market. Especially with the recent volatility, it is clear that the only thing certain is uncertainty. Those who are inflexible have a hard time making money in a market where adaptability is rewarded. One needs to recognize when market conditions have changed and tweak their strategies accordingly. Those who don't change are usually the ones that shelter their egos and refuse to admit that they were wrong. There is a fine line between holding onto your convictions and being wrong. Those who have a sound strategy know that as long as all the signals are indicating a certain trade, it is the right thing to hold onto your convictions. They usually have an exit point on both the winning side and losing side. People who are wrong usually have no strategy or deviate from their strategy because their emotions and ego get in the way. They are holding a stock for no good reason with no exit plan. These are usually also the same people who are susceptible to following "tips" and "hot stock picks" from TV/online gurus. Most top traders rank flexibility, the ability to adapt, as being one of the most important traits contributing to their success (Electronic Day Traders' Secrets and Market Wizards).

In order to survive in a job and in life, one must do what they are "fit" to do. As discussed in the Jack of All Trades article, people are generally more interested and passionate in subjects in which they excel. It only makes sense that one should pursue an occupation that one enjoys and is "fit" to do. If you do not perform a certain job well, it is probably very likely that you will be fired and replaced by someone who can perform the job better. If everyone specialized in their best field/subject area, the world would be so much more efficient. Imagine a row boat at sea with two people, one rower and one navigator trying to reach an island. If one person was physically strong and the other person was better at reading maps and using a compass, it would make sense to make the strong person row and the other person navigate. This "division of labour" would lead to the most efficient situation because each person was "fit" to do their specific task. It is possible to have the physically strong one navigate and the other person to row, but that would most likely lead to much wasted energy although they might still be able to reach their destination. It may seem obvious that one should pursue a job they are fit to do and enjoy, but from my observations, that is usually not the case:

Why do people do jobs they are not good at?

• Social Pressures - Many people want to be doctors, lawyers and bankers because they are the social epitome of hardworking success. Those that perform well during their educational years are often pressured by family members, counselors and friends to pursue such positions.

• Money - People love money. It doesn't matter what they do as long as they get a big pay check. It doesn't matter if the position does not provide stability or benefits as long as the salary is high enough. Monetary wealth is also a societal measure of success.
  

• Need for Stability and Benefits - Many people, especially poor immigrants, live paycheck by paycheck and need to support their families. They are willing to do anything as long as it is a steady paycheck they know they can depend on. Many families are also dependent on company sponsored health insurance. With the rising cost of health care, people can not afford to leave their jobs, whether they enjoy it or not.
  

• Lack of Self Awareness - People rarely examine themselves. They like to be told what they like and what is good and what is bad. Most people don't know what they are good at because they never bother exploring or perhaps never had the resources or chance to find out. They take media (TV, magazines, newspapers, etc) portrayals as a substitute for self scrutiny. It is much easier to adopt someone else's meaning of happiness than to try to figure out your own.
  

Are you fit for your current occupation? When I was young, I wanted to be a doctor/lawyer because of the prestige and status but as I grew older and learned more about myself and also what the positions entailed, I realized that I was not "fit" to be a doctor/lawyer. It was not a competency issue but rather a conflict of personality and interests. I knew I didn't want to work long hours or do tons of reading or have the physical well being of someone decided by my two hands. There were aspects to these jobs that were appealing such as patient interaction and acquiring the skill to help others and to save lives but on the whole, I knew these were positions I was not fit to do. I was able to come to such realizations after much introspection. Even if you don't know what you are fit to do, you can probably narrow down what you're not fit to do. One needs to learn about oneself and be brutally honest about your abilities and your future goals and dreams. It is easy to fall into society's definition of success and achievement but in order to survive, it is necessary to do something you're "fit" to do.

"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." - Ursula K. Le Guin

Flexibility and Specialization are opposing concepts. When one specializes, as seen in an assembly line, they naturally become less flexible since they are focused on a performing one particular function. Using the row boat analogy, the stronger person that constantly rows the boat, will never learn to navigate and the person that is always navigating will never learn rowing techniques. Despite their opposing nature, both specialization and flexibility is necessary because one has to fit their environment and adapt to the always changing environment, respectively. Uncertainty can be disorienting but if you can strike a balance between being flexible and achieving specialization, you'll be able to survive and be successful in all conditions, unlike the unfortunate Dodo bird in the picture above.

Comments and Personal Stories are always welcome in the comments section or at seeminglyuseless@gmail.com

Recommended Reading: The Origin of Species by Charles Darwin, Electronic Day Traders' Secrets by Marc Friedfertig and Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders by Jack D. Schwager

Jack of All Trades or Master of One

If you are familiar with who I am or have been reading the articles from this blog, then you will know that I am an avid learner and have taken on numerous interests such as Tai Chi Chuan, French, chess and guitar, just to name a few. One issue I constantly struggle with is whether I should stop pursuing new curiosities and start trying to really master some of the interests I have already cultivated. Should I be really good at many things or be outstanding at one or two things? The answer that I came up with is: Why not be both? Is it not possible to be proficient at many things while also mastering a few things?

In order to reach mastery, one needs to not only devote time but also have some sort of innate ability in that area. To clarify, mastery refers to possessing consummate skill and performing at the highest level. EVERY person HAS natural God-given talents and abilities. For some it might be book smarts and the ability to understand and express concepts (top students, orators, lawyers) for others it might be musical ability (instrumentalists, composers, singers), yet others might work really well with their hands (mechanics, painters, carpenters) and so forth and so on. The more natural ability you possess, the shorter time it will take for you to reach mastery. Unfortunately when we were born, a list specifying our talents was not attached so to discover our natural abilities, we must do so via trial and error. This supports the reasoning that learning numerous things (being a Jack of all trades) is actually a prerequisite to achieving mastery in a few.

Another characteristic required to achieve mastery is having a passion for the subject. Without passion, it is near impossible to endure the long arduous journey to mastery. This is further justification for being a polymath, a person of varied learning, because how can one know what they have a passion for without first attempting it. Interestingly, people are generally more interested and passionate about things that they are good at. Think about your favorite subjects in school or your favorite hobbies, I would be surprised if you didn't do well in those classes or if these hobbies weren't things that you were good at. Here is a personal illustration of this phenomenon: I use to enjoy math throughout all of my schooling until I did poorly in one of my advanced math classes and "coincidentally" decided that advanced math was boring, useless and unappealing. Ineptness has the funny ability to transform personal taste.

Although it is possible to be gifted in things you lack passion for, there is no point to obtain mastery for the sake of mastery. True masters are not just imitators but innovators. They understand their field comprehensively enough to take it to the next level. Without passion, there is rarely inspiration and creative insight. Personally, I don't think it is possible to master something that one doesn't love doing but impossible might be too strong of a word.

Being a Jack of all trades is merely a by-product in becoming a master and ultimately a Renaissance Man or homo universalis, a person who "develops skills in all areas of knowledge, in physical development, in social accomplishments and in the arts"(Wikipedia). This ideal stemmed from Leon Battista Alberti's notion that "a man can do all things that he will". It is important to note that the Renaissance ideal was not only limited to improving the intellectual but also the physical. Being a competitive athlete was just as important as speaking several languages or playing several instruments. One of the most famous polymaths was Leonardo Da Vinci, who was a painter, sculptor, engineer, biologist, actor, singer, philosopher, chemist, geologist, physicist, musician, astronomer and anatomist. Before his famous contributions to painting and sculpting, Da Vinci was definitely considered a Jack of all trades. Several interesting articles concerning polymath and a list of renowned Renaissance Men can be found here and at Wikipedia.

An issue that occurs when pursuing many diverse interests is the scarcity of time. Time is limited and each new interest depletes the already pressed time to seriously pursue these interests. Good news is - from my experience, there are several reasons why the problem of finite time should not deter you from learning new things:

• The more things that you learn, the more proficient you become in the skill of learning which results in an increased capacity to learn. Also, almost all topics are interrelated so what is learned in one area becomes useful when learning in another area (Chemistry of Learning). Example: Chinese Philosophy (Yin and Yang) helps people understand the principles of Tai Chi Chuan (emptiness and fullness) which teaches the importance of generating all movements from the hips (kua) which is useful for executing effective martial arts (kickboxing, grappling, Wing Chun, etc) and sports (golf, tennis, baseball, etc) techniques.
  

• Resources for learning are easy and fast to access with the Internet. There are countless online tutorials for every subject under the sun and if you prefer the classic training via a teacher, online networks can match you with a teacher, online or in-person, within seconds. Learning online also caters to your schedule so you can learn at all hours of the day. Having all these resources at the click of a mouse is definitely a strong asset against the ever falling sands of time.

• One can learn to use their time more efficiently. As you learn more things, not only will your proficiency in learning increase but also your ability to "find" free time. Flashcards and mp3 players are excellent tools in converting time used for traveling and waiting into learning opportunities. Audio books, language lessons, music lessons and more are all available during your commute to work, your wait at the doctor's office or Department of Motor Vehicles, or while you're busy doing chores at home. Combining several of your interests can also help to free up some of that precious time. Example: Stretching while studying/reading or practicing scales on your instrument as you watch TV.
  

Even if you may have found your natural ability and life's calling, it is still necessary to keep an open mind and to learn about/try many things. You never know if you have other hidden talents. The phrase "Jack of all trades, master of none" is currently used as an insult to refer to someone who is competent at many things but not magnificent in any particular one but the quote was originally meant to be used as a compliment in its full form: "Jack of all trades, master of none, though ofttimes better than master of one." As with everything, it is necessary to have a balance (Yin Yang Markets article), know your limits and don't spread yourself too thin but at the same time follow your interests even if it means stepping out of your comfort zone. Learn more today!

Recommended Reading: Polymath: 'A Renaissance Man' and The Polymath by Bensalem Himmich

Change - A Study of Dynamic Equilibrium and Le Chatelier's Principle

"Nothing endures but change" - Heraclitus (Ancient Greek Philosopher)

"Change before you have to" - Jack Welch (Corporate CEO)

"There is nothing wrong with change, if it is in the right direction" - Winston Churchill (British Prime Minister during World War II)

"There is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things." - Niccolo Machiavelli (Italian Diplomat and Political Philosopher)

Above are several famous quotes, each touching upon a different characteristic of change. Change is described by Wikipedia as "the transition that occurs between one state to another". Heraclitus was very insightful when he observed 2500 years ago that the world is ever changing. To this day, people, society, languages, television shows, etc. are constantly changing. This happens because change not only provides an escape of the mundane but is necessary for innovation and growth. Jack Welch's words of wisdom, in addition to echoing Heraclitus' observation of the perdurability of change, also insinuates that change has an internal and external component. People can choose to change or be forced by the external environment to change. Churchill touches upon the "direction" of change, which can be good or bad. A person's value system will determine how they view change and whether they will support or fight it. Machiavelli states eloquently the common experience that change is hard. Change is so difficult because it requires you to step out of your comfort zone with no promise of desired results.

Change is one of those amorphous topics that is difficult to study because it is far easier to focus on the result of change rather than on the process of change. It is important to understand how the process of change works so one can effectively initiate change or recognize when change is occurring around or to them. Interestingly, a study of chemistry has provided me with some insights into the process of change.

In chemistry, an important recurring concept is dynamic equilibrium which occurs when two opposing processes proceed at the same rate. The word "dynamic" is used to emphasize the constant motion during equilibrium even though it may seem to be at a standstill. The main principle associated with predicting effects of a change during equilibrium was one founded by Henry Louis Le Chatelier. Le Chatelier's principle basically states that if any system at equilibrium is disturbed by a change, then the equilibrium shifts to partially counter-act the imposed change. A common example would be in a chemical reaction at dynamic equilibrium and if more reactants are added, then the equilibrium would shift to reduce the reactants by producing more products. The reverse also holds true so if more products are added to the equilibrium, then the equilibrium would shift to reduce products by producing more reactants.

This idea of dynamic equilibrium occurs often outside the world of chemistry. The stock market, like all free markets, is governed by the economic law of supply and demand. Stock prices rise when demand exceeds supply and drops when supply exceeds demand. When the supply (people selling) is equal to demand (people buying), dynamic equilibrium exists as the stock price enters into a tight range and seemingly stops moving. Homeostasis, the body's stable and constant condition is maintained by using several dynamic equilibrium adjustments and mechanisms. Muscle strength, unless you are actively exercising, is usually in a state dynamic equilibrium. When using your muscles for everyday activities, muscle mass is neither gained nor lost. It is not until you vary your daily muscle usage that this equilibrium begins to shift.

Many people live their lives trapped in dynamic equilibrium. Things are moving (everyday routines and even busy lifestyles) but they aren't really going anywhere, they feel bored or they don't make self improvements (mind, body or soul). From my observations and experiences, I believe that the reason why this occurs is because changing is uncomfortable. Having to leave the shelter of one's "security blanket" can foster feelings of vulnerability and uncertainty. The magnitude of change is directly proportional to the discomfort experienced. Just think about the chaos, violence and uncertainty during the French Revolution (Reign of Terror) or how you felt when you were going through puberty.

In addition to being uncomfortable, breaking out of dynamic equilibrium/consolidation, as any trader or investor will attest, requires significant energy. This is due to the natural tendency for things to gravitate towards the mean. Stock prices, during consolidation (people buying = people selling), will always regress towards the mean unless there is considerable momentum one way or the other to break out of the range. During this breakout, there is a period of volatility and uncertainty as investors cannot yet discern if this is a false breakout or not. Like stock breakouts, people implementing changes (career change, relocating to a new city, starting or ending a relationship) in their life will always feel a degree of uncertainty and doubt until they are again able to establish a dynamic equilibrium in their lives.

If it is so difficult to change, why bother? Because change is inevitable and if you know change is coming, it is always better to preempt it by choosing to change rather than being forced to change. Change is also the conduit for people to grow and improve themselves. If you want to be stronger, smarter and less bored, then you need to shift your dynamic equilibrium to the next level. Change, as aforementioned, is directional. It can be good or bad. For future examples, assume that an upward shift in equilibrium is a desirable change and a downward shift is an undesirable change.

Keeping in mind Le Chatelier's principle and that change can be initiated internally or caused externally (out of your control), here are some ways to help you change for the better:

• Challenge Yourself: A challenge is the disturbance that will shift your equilibrium in the direction to make the challenge less of a challenge (Le Chatelier's principle). Imagine lifting weights, if you increase the amount of weight you normally use, your body will automatically grow your muscles so as to make that weight seem lighter the next time you try to lift it. The harder the challenge (greater the disturbance) the greater the shift in equilibrium. Since breaking out of equilibrium already requires significant energy, it is possible to "over-challenge" yourself and not have the required energy to break out of the equilibrium (lifting weights that are too heavy).
  

• Discomfort is a State of Mind: How you view discomfort will go a long way in terms of how you change. Sticking with the weight training analogy, those who adopt a "No Pain, No Gain" mentality will usually fare better than those who complain about muscle soreness and fatigue. Stepping out of your comfort zone risks failure (thoughts on failure discussed in the Chemistry of Learning article) since you are entering a realm of uncertainty. The only way to be comfortable with discomfort is to practice stepping out of your comfort zone (Le Chatelier's principle). Learn a new sport, language, musical instrument, dance, etc. and go out and do things you would not normally do (safe and legal things like singing karaoke in front of strangers).
  

• Change is a Two Way Street: Be wary that Le Chatelier's principle also applies to the reverse direction of change. If a musician or athlete stops practicing, the dynamic equilibrium will shift to a state where the musician or athlete will need more practice to achieve the same results thus the musician becomes rusty and the athlete becomes slow and less skillful. So it is not only important to shift your dynamic equilibrium up but also to prevent it from shifting down.
  

This article has looked at change from an unconventional viewpoint so feel free to leave feedback and/or your own personal experiences and advice regarding change in the comments section or at seeminglyuseless@gmail.com.

Remember the words of Robert C. Gallagher: "Change is inevitable - except from a vending machine." --> So Embrace It and Use Exact Change!

Recommended Reading: Leading Change by John P. Kotter The Dance of Change: Challenges to Sustaining Momentum in Learning Organizations by Peter M. Senge

The Two Mistake Great Nations Always Make

The phrase "Rise and Fall of" usually precedes something great that was established but then due to certain factors just utterly falls apart. This term has always been reserved for swift magnificent collapses. Some current nouns befitting this descriptive title are Bear Stearns, Eliot Spitzer and even Britney Spears. These three examples are testament to George Santayana's famous advice that "Those who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them". So in order to learn this lesson the "easy" way, I decided to research one of the greatest and most widely studied collapses of all time, the Fall of the Roman Empire. In our society, there has always been an interest and emphasis on studying how to "rise to the top" as evident by the multitude of self-help/personal development books, websites and seminars. Since most people already know how to "rise" and be successful, I want to focus on how certain extremely successful and great things "fall from glory".

The reason for the fall of the Roman Empire is one of much debate and controversy. One theory by Edward Gibbon blames the decline of the Empire on loss of "civic virtue" among Rome's citizens resulting in outsourcing of important duties such as Empire defense to barbarian mercenaries who eventually revolted and took over the Empire. Roman citizens became complacent and lazy with their successes and lost the military toughness that had brought them success. Another reason cited for the Empire's demise was overextension. As the Empire grew, there were more bordering enemies and more cities to defend thus spreading the military thin. This not only led to weakened defense throughout all the cities during a time when military protection needed to be strongest but also led to the aforementioned hiring of barbarian mercenaries who later became responsible for destroying the Empire. Rome's fall is eloquently described by Gibbon here: "The union of the Roman empire was dissolved; its genius was humbled in the dust; and armies of unknown barbarians, issuing from the frozen regions of the North, had established their victorious reign over the fairest provinces of Europe and Africa." (Chapter 33 from Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire).

Although barbarian incursions are popularly believed to be the cause of Rome's fall, an interesting argument has been raised in The Upside of Down by Thomas Homer-Dixon for complexity as a primary cause. He believed that Roman Society became more complex and difficult to control which resulted in bureaucracies and corruption. Homer-Dixon states that "rising complexity strangled the empire's ability to renew itself". Basically, the complexity led to a rigidity that reduced Rome's ability to withstand sudden unexpected crises. The author also argues that increasing complexity results in decreasing investment returns of energy despite expending more energy. Rome's main source of energy was food and as Rome expanded and became more complex, the empire exhausted its best farmland and had to cultivate less fertile lands. Poorer crop yields along with longer food supply lines to major cities caused the return on energy investment to steadily decrease with increasing effort/energy. As time went on and complexity further increased, Rome's energy supply was eventually producing too little for the amount of energy needed to maintain these supply lines and its famous dramatic collapse ensued.

Although commonly associated with intelligence, sophistication and progress, complexity is detrimental. Complex ideas and institutions require more energy to sustain with diminishing marginal returns than its simple predecessors. The current financial credit crisis in the US was born out of complex financial instruments (nontraditional mortgages and equity and bond derivatives) that very few people, including CEOs of major financial institutions, understood. These complex systems caused the financial industry to become too rigid and when a crisis (subprime) occurred, many firms were rudely awakened to staggering losses and substantial risks on various holdings (Bear Stearns, Ambac Financial, Countrywide Financial and numerous other companies). Since society and financial markets are becoming more intertwined and complex, a disaster in the financial sector translates into trouble for the general economy and global markets. The more complex a system is the less the system can cope with sudden shocks.

Another example that attests to the deleterious effects of complexity can be seen in investing/trading. Two REQUIRED characteristics of a successful investor/trader are flexibility and adaptability. The financial markets are ever changing and to be profitable one has to act fast and be flexible in one's thinking and adapt to changing conditions. Since rigidity is directly proportional to complexity and flexibility is the opposite of rigidity, it is logical to conclude that complexity is inversely proportional to investing/trading success. Traders and investors that devote much of their time performing complex strategies and using every indicator across all markets usually suffer in performance to those who have simple yet effective strategies. It is easy to get lost in all the clutter and miss out on key information.

Here are some valuable lessons to be learned from the Fall of the Roman Empire:

• Don't Become Complacent - After achieving success, it is natural to want to take a break from all your hard work and get lazy but if you want to maintain success, you need to stay "hungry" for what you want. Pursue work that you enjoy so you never need to really "take a break". Trying to constantly improve your chances of success is something you should find fun.
  

• Don't Overextend Yourself - Napoleon, the Roman Empire, and subprime borrowers are all too familiar with the grave dangers of overextending. Spreading yourself thin is always an invitation for disaster. When you take on too much, there is no room for error or unforeseen circumstances. Know your limitations and make sure you stay within them so as to not become an unfortunate statistic to Murphy's Law.
  

• Keep It Simple, Stupid! (KISS) - The most important lesson that I learned from my research is to keep things simple. I have seen many traders use a million and one indicators and look at hundreds of charts and perform all types of complex analysis but yet can't make any money. When you pay too much attention to detail, it not only consumes time and energy, sometimes you lose sight of the big picture and important data. The most effective presentations are those that get to the point. When things are complicated, it is easy for mistakes to occur but difficult to locate the source of those mistakes. Almost always, less IS really more.
  

History does hold many timeless teachings and taking heed to these lessons will save you from learning things the "hard" way.

Stay tuned for future articles concerning complexity. It is a topic that is both intriguing and relevant.

Recommended Reading: The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire by Edward Gibbon and The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization by Thomas Homer-Dixon

Streaks and Slumps

As all tennis fans know, the most dominant player in tennis, Roger Federer, lost yesterday in the first round at the Dubai Tennis Championships. Just last year he was unstoppable, winning three Grand Slam titles. Now with the recent loss last month in the Australian Open semifinals and this unimaginable first round loss, many critics proclaim that Federer is in a slump. How the tides have turned. This is testament to the yin and yang balance discussed earlier in Yin Yang Markets.

To some extent, I am sure that we have all experienced or at least witnessed the phenomenon of slumps and streaks. Whether it is in sports, gambling or stocks trading, steaks and slumps seem to come into play whenever performance is involved. What I want to discuss in this post is that in reality, there are no such things as streaks and slumps, just probability. Almost all perceived streaks and slumps, with a few outstanding exceptions, are within the realm of inherent probabilities. For example, if a baseball hitter has a .300 lifetime batting average, but in one season had a 40 game hitting streak. His chances of hitting the ball will seem to be higher than average to both himself and observers during this "extraordinary" streak but if you study his lifetime hitting statistics, you will see that there is no evidence that points to a higher probability to hitting the ball. So even though he was "on fire", he was still only performing within his normal chances.

So why do people usually attribute streaks/slumps with an enhanced probability for success/failure, respectively, when in fact both streaks and slumps can be explained within the normal probabilities? Well, people are natural pattern seekers. We can look at things that are random or meaningless and rationalize some sort of pattern or meaning. Also, clusters of similar outcomes that seemingly defy probability tend to capture our attention, forcing our mind to rationalize such a deviation from the norm. (Imagine 30 coin tosses, where the first 15 tosses land on heads and the second 15 tosses land on tails. If you were only shown the first 15 tosses, you would probably feel that the chance of hitting heads on this coin is higher than 50% and that maybe it is a trick coin. This perceived increase in probability is what causes people to believe in players being "in the zone", "on fire" and "unstoppable". )

The difference between coin toss results and a baseball player's batting average is that batting average is dependent on skill. Skill varies from person to person but the more skillful you are the higher your chances of succeeding in what you attempt to do. Although not impossible, it is rare to see win streaks from bad teams or hit streaks from poor hitters. What you usually see is good teams going on long win streaks (2007 New England Patriots) and star players (Michael Jordan) being "on fire". Those who are at the top of their profession or sport have above average probability for success leading to increased chances of producing streaks. Stephen Jay Gould explained long streaks as "a matter of extraordinary luck imposed on great skill".

I know of many people, including myself, that have been in streaks and slumps. During streaks, everything is great but complacency and overconfidence sets in because one perceives a higher chance of succeeding. This is especially prevalent in gambling, when someone, after winning a few successive hands, feels that they have a higher chance of winning even though all casino games have fixed win/lose probabilities. This overconfidence is what causes most winners to give their winnings and more back to the casino. As for slumps, most people I know always try to place blame on others, their routines and/or their strategies. This leads to frequent unnecessary overhauls and changes that can further lead to sub par results (good golf players "tweaking" their swing after a short series of bad hits). Don't get me wrong, it is always good to evaluate and improve, but to make big changes in technique and strategy after a small slump may be "throwing the baby out with the bath water". Also in most cases, only time is needed to let probabilities run its course.

So next time you're in a streak or slump, just know that you are still operating within your normal chances of success/failure and overconfidence or despair is unwarranted. As mentioned, skill is a factor in determining your "normal chances", so improving your skills is a necessity if you want to have "streaks" of success. Many top players (Tiger Woods, Alex Rodriguez and Roger Federer) have experienced both streaks and slumps but they eventually always come back to win because probability is on their side. Thomas Jefferson once said "I find that the harder I work, the more luck I seem to have".

So if you want to get lucky, you know what you have to do.

Luck => Success. Hard Work => Luck. Hard Work => Success.

As always, feel free to comment below!

Recommended Reading: Confidence: How Winning Streaks and Losing Streaks Begin and End by Rosabeth Moss Kanter, A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton G. Malkiel

Chemistry of Learning

Recently I was reviewing some chemistry concepts for an upcoming exam and I noticed an intriguing parallel between chemical reactions and the process of learning. As an avid learner, the observations discussed in this post have been prevalent throughout my learning experiences. For those of you who don't remember or who never learned any chemistry, here is a quick lesson on chemical reactions:

In order for a chemical reaction (initial state --> final state) to occur, there is an energy barrier that needs to be first overcome. This situation is much like pushing a boulder up from the east side of the hill to the west. Once the boulder reaches the apex of the hill, it will easily roll down to the west side. Although it is possible that someone is strong enough to throw the boulder over the apex of the hill, the most energy efficient way is to roll it from the bottom to the top. This minimum energy required to initiate the reaction is called the activation energy. As you can see from the diagram, usage of a catalyst can significantly lower activation energy.

From my experiences, in order for learning to occur, there is usually a barrier, similar to the activation energy of chemical reactions that needs to be overcome before any learning can take place. The point of learning is to go from an initial state (for example: non musician) to a final state (musician). Like the aforementioned analogy of pushing a boulder up a hill, unless you reach the apex, real productive learning can not occur. At the apex, effective learning begins and achieving the final state is not only a possibility but an inevitability. Failures to overcome this barrier are evident when you see people who put in good effort but are unable to reach their final states. I believe that anything can be learned, although mastery is another subject all together.

So, how does one overcome this learning barrier in the fastest most effective manner? This is very similar to asking what the fastest method is to pushing a boulder from one side of a hill to the other. One can either use more energy or somehow take a short cut through the actual hill itself. Here are some ways that can help you reach the activation energy needed to initiate effective learning:

1) Lower the Learning Barrier: In chemical reactions, the activation energy can be lowered by introducing a catalyst. Lowering the actual barrier will naturally cause the road to reaching the final state both smoother and faster. Common catalysts for learning are teachers/coaches, instructional books and the internet. These catalysts all act to lower the barrier to effective learning by providing a "shortcut" to reaching the top of "the hill". The quality of the catalyst is very important because poor and questionable instruction (especially on the internet) can prove to be detrimental to achieving your goals. Although it is possible to learn on your own, excellent instruction is usually the more effective method because good teachers have refined their methods from years of trial and error, saving you the trouble of hitting common pitfalls.

2) Use More Energy: Molecules with higher energy tend to react more easily because they overcome the activation energy more readily. Ways to increase energy in learning is to approach the process with a positive attitude coupled with hard work. Motivation, although helpful for the initial push and maybe short bursts during your learning process, is hard to sustain but having discipline will allow you to keep your energy high and at a consistent level. Without hard work and discipline, you will not have enough energy to reach the top of the hill.

3) Persistence: Molecules will constantly bump into each other until the right configuration and energy is achieved for a reaction. It is not enough to only have the energy to push the boulder up the hill; you need the resolve to keep pushing it until you reach the top. Even though mountain climbers cannot see the peak of a mountain until they get near the top, what keeps them going is that they know there is a peak. So for those who have tried but still can not see themselves as musicians, Italian speakers or golfers, just keep pushing to reach that apex and these things will become an eventuality.

From my own experience, here are some important points to keep in mind as you approach learning:

• As with different chemical reactants, different people have different activation energies. Some people may learn certain things faster and other things slower. Due to this natural discrepancy, it is pointless to compare yourself to someone else. Like all scientific experiments, there is a control and a variable. If you want to track your progress you should only make self to self comparisons to keep all other variables constant.
  

• One thing certain is that the more things you learn and the more times you successfully overcome the activation barrier, the easier learning new things will be. The brain is like a muscle that only gets stronger with exercise and use. Although the things you may be learning are completely unrelated, the actual process of learning these things are strikingly similar. For example, someone may be learning how to swim and after they overcome their learning barrier they will begin to be able to manipulate their arms and legs in the form of a swimmer. They may not have the best form yet but they are able to better consciously control and coordinate various aspects of their body, such as the arms, the legs and breathing. This boosted ability to control their body and breathing will strengthen the neural networks of their brain making it easier if they ever wanted to learn other things such as salsa dancing, martial arts, snowboarding, guitar and etc. Also, with each learning barrier conquered, you also build up your discipline and perseverance which will help you in everything you do. Bottom Line: Learn more things.
  

• Another useful method to help reach your desired learning goal is to map out mini goals. Succeeding at mini goals will provide the fuel you need to tackle bigger goals. For example, if you want to learn how to play the guitar, your first mini goal will be to play one chord, your next mini goal may be to play four chords and after that to play a song using the four chords you just learned. Before you know it, you will be playing the guitar and it was all because you were focused on reaching these small checkpoints and not on the taking the entire challenge as a whole. It is like running the marathon one mile at a time as opposed to thinking about running the entire twenty six miles.
  

• The most important attribute that will lead to successful learning is - Don't be scared to fail. People learn much more from failure than they do from success. Here are some good quotes summing up the subject of failure:

"You miss one hundred percent of the shots you never take"
(Wayne Gretzky)

"Success is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm"
(Winston Churchill)

"Life's real failure is when you do not realize how close you were to success when you gave up."
(Unknown)

Please feel free to comment with your own learning experiences and tips. Look for future posts concerning self-discipline.

Recommended Reading: Art of Learning by Josh Waitzkin

Dangerous Seven

Recently, I stumbled upon some teachings by Mohandas Karamchand "Mahatma" Gandhi, the father of India and pioneer of Satyagraha (सत्याग्रह, a philosophy and practice of active, non-violent resistance). Unlike Machiavellian thought of "ends justifying the means", Satyagraha teaches that the means and ends are inseparable and that it is contradictory to use unjust means to obtain justice or use violence to obtain peace (not a popular belief even in this day and age). Gandhi believed that although violence is preferred over cowardice, "nonviolence is infinitely superior to violence, forgiveness is more manly than punishment".

Out of his many wisdoms, Mahatma Gandhi's observations on Traits Most Spiritually Perilous to Humanity resonates most strongly with me:

Wealth without work.
Pleasure without conscience.
Science without humanity.
Knowledge without character.
Politics without principle.
Commerce without morality.
Worship without sacrifice.

These seven traits if you stop to consider are still very prevalent throughout our society and amongst our political and corporate leaders. I am sure the readers of this post all have different belief systems but these seven traits are worth noting regardless of where your moral loyalties stand.

Recommended Reading: Gandhi: a Life by Yogesh Chadha