Warning: Relieving Stress CAN Hurt - The Cost of Stress Relief

The recent unfortunate disaster in China's Sichuan Province awakens us to the power of Mother Nature. Most living things, especially humans, are "Earth's surface-centered". There is usually a disregard to happenings beneath the Earth's surface and a general disinterest (when was the last time you heard from NASA) in occurrences outside of the Earth's surface (outerspace). That is until something, such as yesterday's destructive earthquake or the impressive 1833 Leonids meteor shower, reminds us that there is more to the Universe than the surface of the Earth.

Earthquakes are characterized by tremors in the Earth's crust. Seismology, the study of earthquakes, attributes naturally occurring earthquakes to movements of tectonic plates, located in the lithosphere, that "float" on the athenosphere (thick liquid layer above the upper mantle). The boundary where these plates meet are called faults which are categorized into three categories based on "sense of slip": normal faults, thrust faults and strike slip faults (see picture to the right courtesy of USGS). The plates creating these faults are pushed together very tightly which causes them to lock due to friction. As pressure mounts, the force of the friction is surmounted causing fast and abrupt slippage between the plates. This quick displacement of the Earth's crust releases energy in the form of seismic waves that are responsible for the physical manifestation (vibrations) of earthquakes. Basically, earthquakes are the Earth's way of venting and releasing pent up stress. Despite greater understanding about earthquakes, they are still unpredictable. Although some areas (major fault lines such as the San Andreas Fault, New Madrid Fault or Great Sumatran Fault) are more susceptible to earthquakes than others, the exact timing of when an earthquake will occur still remains a mystery.

Thomas Homer-Dixon, in The Upside of Down, makes a very interesting analogy between earthquakes and social breakdown. He insightfully states that "population, energy, environmental, climate, and economic stresses affecting our world are just like tectonic stresses: deep, invisible, yet immensely powerful; they're building slowly; and they can release their force suddenly without warning." Much like earthquakes, social stresses can be released quietly or catastrophically. When societies' institutions and systems (political/economic) become "rigid" and "lock up" (read articles concerning Complexity), pressure escalates until something finally gives (example: the 1989 revolutions in Eastern Europe). Social breakdown is also similar to earthquakes in that "stress triggering": stress release in one area can "dramatically" and "often unexpectedly" increase stress in other areas leading to a devastating domino effect (example: the 1997 East Asia financial crisis that was triggered by Thailand's currency devaluation which culminated in a default of Russian sovereign debt which led to the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management). The characteristic that makes both earthquakes and social collapses dangerous is the unpredictability. Although "foreshocks", minor tremors that precede an earthquake, do sometimes occur, they do not happen consistently enough to predict quakes. Earthquakes, geological and social, can change our lives and our way of thinking because it shatters the very foundation we build our homes and lives upon, respectively. Terra firma and one's society are both suppose to be stable entities, so when its strength fails, one can not help but be terrified.

Here are some notable facts about earthquakes (full list can be found at USGS):

1. The hypocenter of an earthquake is the location beneath the earth's surface where the rupture of the fault begins. The epicenter of an earthquake is the location directly above the hypocenter on the surface of the earth.
2. Mountains and Volcanoes are created by tectonic plate movements.
3. Each year there are 500,000 detectable earthquakes in the world.
4. The world's deadliest recorded earthquake occurred in 1556 in central China. It struck a region where most people lived in caves carved from soft rock. These dwellings collapsed during the earthquake, killing an estimated 830,000 people. In 1976 another deadly earthquake struck in Tangshan, China, where more than 250,000 people were killed.
5. You can track the latest Earthquakes with a 5.0+ magnitude here.
6. According to the American Red Cross, the best thing to do during an earthquake is: Drop, cover and hold under a sturdy piece of furniture (table or desk).
   

Seemingly Useless Commentary:

So what are the major "faults" (some pun intended) of our society today? The energy crisis and the scarcity of natural resources (oil and precious metals) are definitely one of the major faults where pressure is building (price of crude oil hit $127 today). The battle between capitalism and the environment is definitely another major fault. Heavy industries are causing irreparable damages to the world's water (water crisis article), forests, air and land. Changes in the global ecosystem will increase the rate of species extinction and these shifts in the environment will cause climate to change dramatically. Economic faults such as the widening wealth gap and the subprime mortgage debacle are also creating pockets of dense pressure. Much like Monday's earthquake in China, the mounting pressure of any one of these faults may be released at any moment and unfortunately it is almost a certainty that there will be casualties.

As always, feel free to comment with your own ideas and opinions concerning earthquakes and/or social breakdowns. With all these pressure points, is a collapse inevitable?

Recommended Readings: The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization by Thomas Homer-Dixon

Useful Websites:
USGS Earthquake Website

The Truth about Complexity - A Necessary Evil

In my previous article (The Fall of Rise and Fall), I cited complexity as a main reason for the Fall of the Roman Empire. It seems that any growing society is eventually going to become complex. According to Joseph Tainter (author of The Collapse of Complex Societies and Complexity, Problem Solving and Sustainable Societies), there are four basic premises needed to understand the reasons complex societies arise and why they collapse:

1. Human Societies are problem-solving organizations.
2. Sociopolitical systems require energy for their maintenance.
3. Increased complexity carries with it increased costs per capita.
4. Investment in complexity as a problem-solving response often reaches a point of declining marginal returns.
   

So based on these concepts, Tainter suggests that societies become increasingly complex as a solution to unmet challenges and problems. When all the simple and most effective answers are exhausted, complex and less effective answers are used. The issue with complex answers is that cost is directly proportional to complexity but the effectiveness of complex solutions declines with increasing complexity. Initially, small investments in complexity produce great benefits but due to diminishing returns, larger and larger investments yield less and less benefit. Eventually, costs and complexity rises without any increase benefit and more energy is required to merely sustain the status quo. It is at this point that a collapse becomes likely because any crisis can be the proverbial "straw that breaks the camel's back" due to the decline in the society's resilience.

When complex solutions are first applied it is believed they will only be for the short term but inevitably they perpetuate and the long term costs compound. A great example is the current energy crisis. With crude oil prices at all time highs, more complex but less effective alternatives (ethanol, solar, wind, geothermal and nuclear power) are gaining momentum. In addition to alternatives, more complicated and expensive methods for oil extraction (oil sands extraction, deep sea drilling and Fischer-Tropsch process) are also being used.

So are we all doomed at the hand of complexity? ... maybe

Society can avoid collapse by getting control of a new source of energy, either by technical innovation or by conquest. Eventually, however, it becomes impossible to maintain this because of diminishing marginal returns on any strategy that is pursued. The good news is collapse of complex societies does not always equal Armageddon. It usually results in a return to simpler times and a lower level of complexity.

It seems that increasing complexity is a necessary evil for societies dealing with unsolved problems. This complexity increase will eventually crescendo and fade back to a simpler time. The problem is a return to simplicity from complexity is usually preceded by a collapse which affects all parties negatively. The perpetual cycle of societies going from complex to simple is reminiscent of the Yin Yang balance (read Yin Yang Markets) found in Chinese philosophy. Just as night is darkest before dawn, so a society is most complex right before reverting back to simplicity.

It is important to understand that complex solutions are unavoidable in an energy scarce society but individuals need to prepare themselves and increase their own resiliency as complexity increases and society as a whole becomes less resilient.

Recommended Reading: The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph Tainter

Warning: We're Running Out of Water - The Scarcity of Life's Essence

"Water, water, every where,
And all the boards did shrink;
Water, water, every where,
Nor any drop to drink."

(taken from The Rime of the Ancient Mariner by Samuel Taylor Coleridge, 1817 Edition)

The mariner and his crew from Samuel Taylor Coleridge's famous poem understood the pain of water scarcity despite its apparent abundance. Their predicament is not much different from the predicament many people are currently facing. Although water covers 71% of the Earth's surface, less than 1% of the world's fresh water (or about 0.007% of all the water on earth) is readily accessible for direct human use (World Health Organization Fact Sheet, also see picture to the right). About one sixth of the world's population (1.1 billion people) TODAY has inadequate access to safe drinking water and it is estimated that by 2050, two-thirds of the world's population could be living in areas with chronic, widespread water shortages.

In the United States, we take water for granted. Everyone has access to affordable drinking water. Water is naturally recycled through evaporation and precipitation (hydrological cycle) and thus thought to be a renewable resource but with pollution and other factors, the recycling process is not fully efficient. Since the total supply of the Earth's freshwater is unchanged, this inefficiency will eventually lead to less potable water supplies.

In addition to drinking, there are many other human uses for water (Wikipedia):

• Agriculture - Irrigation for farmlands
  
• Hygiene and Sanitation/Sewage Treatment - Water facilitates chemical processing of wastewater
  
• Dissolving Agent - Used for washing almost everything.
• Extinguishing Fires - Most fires are extinguished using water
  
• Chemical Uses - Water is used for many chemical processes
  
• Recreation and Sports - Swimming, water skiing, ice hockey, snowboarding, etc
  
• Food Processing - Water is used to prepare many foods (boiling, steaming, simmering)
  
• Power Generation - Hydroelectric power. Water is also used as the coolant for both electric generators and nuclear power plants
  

As I write this article, crude oil is at all time highs ($118/barrel as of 04/23/2008) and food prices all over the world are rising (Corn Oil for the 21st Century). As the price of food rises, increased farmland and irrigation will cause further stresses on the world's freshwater supply. Many rivers (Colorado River in the US, Amu Darya River in Central Asia and the Yellow River in China) are already running dry causing villagers dependent on their waters to leave their villages and become "water refugees". Population growth across the world will also increase the need for drinking water and water needed for all the aforementioned human uses. In addition to population growth, the increasing affluence of the middle class in Asia (India, Southeast Asia and China) will lead to increase consumption of water due to a shift in diet from grain to meat (It takes one thousand times more water to raise a cow than to raise its equivalent in grain) and the movement towards better hygiene will result in more toilet flushes and other water consuming sanitation methods. Another big factor that may lead to an impending water crisis is the antiquated water infrastructure around the world. Deteriorating pipes and water treatment facilities lead to water wasting which will decrease the already scant supply of freshwater.

If we don't start conserving and searching for alternate ways to recycle our water supply, the price of water will go down the road of other limited natural resources such as oil and natural metals and we may soon be lamenting (in the prose of Coleridge):

Water, water, every where,
None for use, the price too high;
Water, water, really no where,
Did I cause this just standing by?

The rising costs for water are fairly apparent. Monetarily, it is obvious as prices on water bills continually rise but not so obvious is the damage being done to biodiversity. Since there is a limited amount of fresh water, as humans increase their use there is a natural depletion of water availability for vegetation and wildlife dependent on freshwater. Wetlands (bogs and marshes such as the Florida Everglades) and their resident lifeforms are already suffering from fresh water depletion and many water dependent species are joining the ever growing endangered species list - International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species. This loss of biodiversity hurts the discovery of future medicines and foods. When interdependent ecosystems become disturbed, bad things happen.

Another expense of water scarcity is WAR. We have already seen it with oil and if nothing changes, we will definitely see it over water. Rivers and other bodies of freshwater supplies do not follow national borders and one country's use of its water directly impacts the supply to other countries using the same freshwater source. As a matter of fact, there have already been several conflicts over water (Egypt vs. Ethiopia, India vs. Pakistan, Turkey vs. Syria vs. Iraq and Israel vs. Jordan). When it comes down to securing and/or protecting water resources for its citizens, the most peaceful country is more than willing to go to war. Even if conventional war is not waged, water shortages will lead to mass migrations, rampant disease propagation and food shortages.

Unlike scarcity of other natural resources, scarcity of water is a matter of life and death. A person can live weeks without food but only days without water (How Long Can You Survive Without Water?). So whether you care about the environment and its species, world peace, the money in your wallet or your own survival, it is necessary to conserve water and to be proactive in protecting our freshwater supply.

Here are some ways to prevent the looming water disaster:

1) Get Educated - There are numerous free resources, such as Water Partners International, concerning water conservation and the water crisis all over the internet. In order to live a water conserving lifestyle, one has to learn how and why it is necessary to save water.

2) Use Less Water - According to the Sphere Project Handbook "Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Disaster Response.", the average person needs 4 to 5 gallons of water per day to survive. The average American uses about 150 gallons of water at home each day. There is definitely room to cut back. Click here for some water saving tips.

3) Spread the Word - Tell EVERYONE that you know about the water crisis and ways to conserve. Standing idly by as others remain ignorant about the water problem is as bad as wasting water yourself.

4) Voting - Vote for political candidates who are sensitive to and understand the water issue. This will help lead to legislation for water conservation and economic incentives for water technology.

Every little thing helps. Many people doing little things will eventually have a huge impact. That is why it is important to get educated, use less water and spread the word about the water crisis.

The current situation in natural resources is described perfectly by Mahatma Ghandi:
"The earth provides enough to satisfy every man's needs, but not every man's greed."

Additional Seemingly Useless Commentary:

Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait are experiencing economic boons because of record high oil prices. Interestingly, the gulf states are also located in one of the most freshwater deficient areas in the world where they have to resort to desalination, the expensive conversion of sea water to freshwater. In the future, if water prices begin to rise, demand for other not-as-essential goods such as oil will decrease. This may lead to a reversal of fortunes for these Middle Eastern states as their incomes begin to decrease but their cost of surviving begin to increase. If nothing changes, it is possible that the Middle East will become uninhabitable. On the flip side of the coin, if the gulf states invest their "oil money" for water research and infrastructure, perhaps we will see a "Blue Revolution" on par with the 20th century agricultural Green Revolution.

For investors and traders, it is perhaps possible to hedge this impending water crisis by investing in companies related to water. Whether it is water utilities (NYSE: WTR - Aqua America Inc.), water desalination (NASDAQ: CWCO - Consolidated Water Co.), water equipment for treatment and storage (NYSE: PNR - Pentair), water infrastructure (NYSE: AMN - Ameron International Corporation, water purification (NYSE: CCC - Calgon Carbon Corp), water irrigation (NYSE: LNN - Lindsay Corporation) or simply the water exchange traded fund (NYSE: PHO - Water ETF), in a situation when water becomes scarce, these companies will stand to benefit (Just look at the oil services sector in the past few years (NYSE: OIH).

Disclaimer: I don't currently own any of these stocks but I am looking to invest in water for the future. As with any stock recommendations, there is no guarantee of success and it is possible that you can lose all your money.

This may perhaps be the most important issue for the 21st Century and should not be taken lightly. I will try to touch upon water-related disease and health issues in a future article. Please feel free to leave comments especially those relating to water and practical ways for conserving water. If you want to send anyone this specific article, copy and paste this link to do so: http://seeminglyuseless.blogspot.com/search/label/Water%20Crisis

Recommended Readings: Blue Covenant: The Global Water Crisis and the Coming Battle for the Right to Water by Maude Barlow, The Rime of the Ancient Mariner by Samuel Taylor Coleridge and When the Rivers Run Dry: Water - The Defining Crisis of the Twenty-first Century by Fred Pearce

Corn Oil for the 21st Century

Anyone that has recently been to the supermarket or bought lunch at a local deli can attest to the fact that prices for food have been rising, seemingly faster and more so than other goods. There are a plethora of reasons behind this rise. First of which is the upsurge in demand for meat from the increasingly affluent middle class of China and India stemming from recent booms in their economies. According to an article from The Economist, "it takes three kilograms of cereals (grain) to produce a kilo of pork, eight for a kilo of beef". So if you do the math, more meat consumption = a lot more grain consumption. A second factor for this "agflation" is crop failures due to natural calamities, droughts (Australia) and cold, rainy weather during the growing season, and political upheavals in emerging countries (Kenya). Although these two factors have had significant impact on the price for food, the dominant cause for this current rise is OIL. Oil's influences on food prices have been unproportionately two-fold. The obvious reason albeit the lesser influence is the increase in transportation and production costs due to record high gasoline and oil prices (crude oil closed at $100/barrel today). If it costs the producer more to process and package the eggs and to ship them to your local supermarket, naturally, some if not all of this expanded cost will be passed to you, the consumer. Finally, the second and foremost reason for such lofty food prices is the use of food as a direct substitute for oil.

"Food as Fuel", a phrase when used 5 years ago would have unmistakably meant fuel for the human body with prompt reference to the iconic food pyramid, has taken on a whole new meaning in 2008. Common feedstock such as corn (maize), sugar cane and switch grass can be converted to biofuel, specifically ethanol, using fairly simple chemical processes (sugar fermentation, distillation, dehydration and denaturing). The apparent appeal of biofuels (reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and a solution to our "addiction" to fossil fuels), numerous government subsidies and farmers exclusively planting biofuel crops because of lucrative economic incentives (oil at $100/barrel) have greatly accelerated the decrease in world food supply.

I am not here to discuss the already controversial and much debated "Food vs. Fuel" argument because a simple Google search will show that there are a ton of articles and forum discussions written by people far more qualified on the subject matter. Rather I would like to talk about ways we can reduce the price of both of these scarce resources: food and fuel. When dealing with scarce goods, prices are governed by the law of supply and demand. In order to decrease prices, one must increase supply and/or curb demand. Since most of us do not own a farm or an oil field, lower prices can only be achieved by reducing consumption of food and fuel thus decreasing demand. Fuel saving tips abound throughout the web and instead of reiterating what has already been covered, I have decided to link a post from a fairly comprehensive fuel economy website and divert the rest of this post to reducing food consumption. Since food is now a direct substitute for fossil fuels, reduction of food consumption should impact both the price of food and fuels. Here are some good ways to reduce the amount of food you eat:

• Reduce Calories, Increase Nutrition - Eat foods with high nutritional content (low saturated fat and high in dietary fiber, vitamins and minerals) and take multivitamins to supplement nutritional deficiencies. Vegetables, fruits and whole grains have good nutrition with low calories while foods high in both sugar and fat provide calories but are usually low in vitamins, minerals and fibers. Make it a habit to check the nutritional food labels of the food you buy. Here are two interesting links: Foods with the Highest and Least Nutrition Content and Nutrient Search Tool

• Do Not Waste Food - This is something you've probably heard all throughout your life. Whether it was from your mom, from your teacher or from TV, I am sure most of you never took it seriously, I know I didn't. Well, if you want gasoline, milk and bread prices to go down, Don't Waste Food! Don't overeat, save leftovers for later and do not be afraid to doggy bag from eating out. Buy, Cook, and Order food in moderation. You know how much you can eat, don't let your cravings and hunger dictate your ordering or food shopping.

• Eat Less Meat - Remember: more meat consumption = a lot more grain consumption. If you can, eat less meat, especially beef and pork.

Like a car with high gas mileage, these suggestions will allow you to eat and operate more efficiently. Reducing food consumption will naturally lead to a healthier diet since nutritional foods will be preferred over unhealthy ones. Better health will bring longevity and energy. Saving Money, More Energy and Longer Life, it is truly a real life trifecta.

As the intertwining of food and fuel become increasingly twisted with record high prices in both commodities, Corn Oil will have a whole new meaning by the time we reach 2009.

Recommended Reading: Beyond Oil: The Threat to Food and Fuel in the Coming Decades by John Gever