The Truth about Complexity - A Necessary Evil

In my previous article (The Fall of Rise and Fall), I cited complexity as a main reason for the Fall of the Roman Empire. It seems that any growing society is eventually going to become complex. According to Joseph Tainter (author of The Collapse of Complex Societies and Complexity, Problem Solving and Sustainable Societies), there are four basic premises needed to understand the reasons complex societies arise and why they collapse:

1. Human Societies are problem-solving organizations.
2. Sociopolitical systems require energy for their maintenance.
3. Increased complexity carries with it increased costs per capita.
4. Investment in complexity as a problem-solving response often reaches a point of declining marginal returns.
   

So based on these concepts, Tainter suggests that societies become increasingly complex as a solution to unmet challenges and problems. When all the simple and most effective answers are exhausted, complex and less effective answers are used. The issue with complex answers is that cost is directly proportional to complexity but the effectiveness of complex solutions declines with increasing complexity. Initially, small investments in complexity produce great benefits but due to diminishing returns, larger and larger investments yield less and less benefit. Eventually, costs and complexity rises without any increase benefit and more energy is required to merely sustain the status quo. It is at this point that a collapse becomes likely because any crisis can be the proverbial "straw that breaks the camel's back" due to the decline in the society's resilience.

When complex solutions are first applied it is believed they will only be for the short term but inevitably they perpetuate and the long term costs compound. A great example is the current energy crisis. With crude oil prices at all time highs, more complex but less effective alternatives (ethanol, solar, wind, geothermal and nuclear power) are gaining momentum. In addition to alternatives, more complicated and expensive methods for oil extraction (oil sands extraction, deep sea drilling and Fischer-Tropsch process) are also being used.

So are we all doomed at the hand of complexity? ... maybe

Society can avoid collapse by getting control of a new source of energy, either by technical innovation or by conquest. Eventually, however, it becomes impossible to maintain this because of diminishing marginal returns on any strategy that is pursued. The good news is collapse of complex societies does not always equal Armageddon. It usually results in a return to simpler times and a lower level of complexity.

It seems that increasing complexity is a necessary evil for societies dealing with unsolved problems. This complexity increase will eventually crescendo and fade back to a simpler time. The problem is a return to simplicity from complexity is usually preceded by a collapse which affects all parties negatively. The perpetual cycle of societies going from complex to simple is reminiscent of the Yin Yang balance (read Yin Yang Markets) found in Chinese philosophy. Just as night is darkest before dawn, so a society is most complex right before reverting back to simplicity.

It is important to understand that complex solutions are unavoidable in an energy scarce society but individuals need to prepare themselves and increase their own resiliency as complexity increases and society as a whole becomes less resilient.

Recommended Reading: The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph Tainter